Pache.co

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.

It’s too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

You’ll be able to find my full notes on every player from every game that would qualify as a tough start/sit over at SportsLine shortly. For now, you can find Heath Cummings full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don’t live up to their hype, at least in Week 2. Projected stats for all starting positions are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine. 

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

MATCHUP

FPTS/G

16.1

LAST WEEK: We got really lucky starting Addison against the Bucs. He played just 55.6% of the snaps in a close loss and had the exact same target share as K.J. Osborn (13.6%). Fortunately, he throttled the Bucs secondary on a 39-yard bomb for his first catch and first NFL touchdown. 

LAST WEEK: At no point did he draw double coverage last week against Tampa Bay, who played zone coverage 85.7% of the time.

EAGLES: Opened the year playing a lot of zone coverage against the Patriots, something they did a lot of last year as well. Against the Vikings in Week 2, they played zone coverage on 73% of their plays. 

ADDISON: All of his Week 2 numbers came against zone coverage. At USC he had a high catch rate last year regardless of coverage but managed better efficiency against zone coverage (16.0 yards per catch and 7.4 Yards After Catch per Reception) than man coverage (13.1-yard receiving average, 6.6 YAC/reception). 

EAGLES: Could be without veteran cornerback James Bradberry, who suffered a concussion last Sunday. It should mean second-year cornerback Josh Jobe (formerly with Alabama) will see a lot of Addison in coverage when Addison is out wide since Darius Slay will likely have a date with Justin Jefferson. Jobe has good speed but lacks experience — just 19 snaps in the NFL (which means Addison is, technically, more experienced). 

VIKINGS: Threw at the second-highest rate in Week 1, picking up where they left off last year when they were top-three in pass rate.

COUSINS: Has thrown at least 37 passes in four of his past five games against the Eagles (two of three as a member of the Vikings). 

There’s still some concern that the Vikings won’t fully unleash Addison because he’s a rookie, but they might not have a choice. They continue to gleefully ignore the run, and this specific matchup got a lot more interesting without Bradberry there. I’d start Addison again over Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton and Michael Thomas. 

MATCHUP

OPP VS WR

4th

FPTS/G

18.6

LAST WEEK: Despite an injury, worked nearly exclusively as an outside receiver and turned five targets into a 4-26-2 stat line despite running just 20 of 30 possible routes. A 25% target per route run rate is always excellent, by the way. 

INSIDE THE 10: Jordan Love threw three passes in short-yardage range. Doubs caught two of them for scores. 

FILM: For a dude with a supposed bad hamstring, Doubs did a good job of hustling to find space. He was locked up by Bears top cornerback Jaylon Johnson but when he saw other competition he did well, including both of his short-area touchdowns. His route-running was good and his timing with Love was excellent. 

FALCONS: Played zone coverage on 73.6% of their snaps last week against a young mobile quarterback, and odds are they’ll be around that range in Week 2. They also kept quality cover corner A.J. Terrell on the left side of the formation for all of last week, likely a personnel-related decision.

I like the matchup for Doubs on three fronts: his playing time should increase, the zone coverage he’ll see should be plentiful and the red-zone targets from Love are hopefully a sign of things to come. I do feel like Doubs is a touchdown-needy receiver, though, so there is a shot he comes through with under 13 PPR points if he doesn’t score. That’s the profile of a solid PPR flex. I’d roll with Doubs over Terry McLaurin, Puka Nacua and Courtland Sutton, all of whom have tougher matchups than last week. 

MATCHUP

TD

0

FPTS/G

8

LAST WEEK: Led the Packers in routes run (24) and lined up all over the formation. Caught 3 of 4 targets but really should have had 4 of 4 with an additional 62 yards and two touchdowns. Love overthrew him when he was wide open thanks to busted coverage, then Musgrave slipped six yards shy of the end zone on another busted coverage play. 

FILM: Musgrave moved well for a big man with speed to get open against linebackers. The Packers rarely used him as anything more than a check-down/short-area option for Love; he ran four routes of 11-plus yards downfield. 

FALCONS: Played zone coverage on 73.6% of their snaps last week against a young mobile quarterback, and odds are they’ll be around that range in Week 2. Hayden Hurst led the Panthers in targets, catches and yards with a touchdown primarily because he was an easy short target. Musgrave could follow suit against linebackers he should be able to separate from. 

It’s too soon to call Musgrave an every-week must-start, but he’s on the path to getting there for at least however long Christian Watson is sidelined. Even then, Musgrave could see four grabs per game and turn in 10 or 11 PPR points on average. He should beat that average this week; I like him ahead of Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet and Tyler Higbee. 

MATCHUP

TD

0

FPTS/G

0

LAST WEEK: A lot of cardio. The stats say he ran 20 routes but he was a blocker on two of them. When he did get a target, he dropped it on a short hitch. London was not a frequent first read for Desmond Ridder, who only needed to attempt 18 passes. London is also the reason why Pitts had just 44 yards receiving instead of 70 because he drew an illegal shift penalty on the play Pitts caught a 26-yard pass on. 

FILM: London did get open a good amount, but it was almost exclusively on a diet of short routes; just four routes went 11-plus yards downfield. This isn’t a talent thing — he has quick feet and great change-of-direction for a bigger receiver. He’s just not seemingly a consistent part of the offense now that he’s competing with Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Mack Hollins for targets.

ARTHUR SMITH: Lost in the soundbite of Smith hating on Fantasy Football (thanks for the shout-out, coach!) was his lamenting of the team being better in their spacing. Seems like an interesting time to bring that up when asked about London. Perhaps there were things London was doing wrong that wound up costing him opportunities — the Pitts penalty chief among them. 

PACKERS: The first concern is that stud cornerback Jaire Alexander will cover London and essentially erase him like he erased D.J. Moore last week. Of Moore’s 32 routes when Alexander was on the field, the elite cover man was on his side 75% of the time. 

SLOT: Alexander almost never follows anyone into the slot. But London lined up in the slot on 15% of his snaps last year and just 2.3% in Week 1. It would be a significant change in how the Falcons use London to put him inside to get him away from Alexander (Packers slot corner Keisean Nixon is no slouch either). 

I can’t make the case for London as a start this week, even though I fully expect the Falcons to throw more and actually need London this week. Receivers with more upside — and this list is gross — include Michael Thomas, Marquise Brown, Puka Nacua and Josh Reynolds. 

MATCHUP

FPTS/G

10.3

LAST WEEK: Played 60% of the snaps in a competitive game against a really good defense, which is why he totaled only 63 total yards with four receptions. 

INSIDE THE 10: The Bills used Damien Harris on two snaps in short-yardage last week, not Cook. That’s not a surprise — Cook played just 14 snaps inside the 10 all of last year. I expect that to continue. 

RAIDERS: Were surprisingly more effective stopping the Broncos running backs through the air than on the ground, but they were ultimately OK at both. Denver’s RBs had 10 catches for a grand total of 38 yards as the Raiders linebackers and nickelback Nate Hobbs were outstanding at sniffing out screens. 

There’s no problem projecting 15-plus touches for Cook in this week’s matchup. It’s just a matter of whether or not he’ll have some monster gains because his odds of scoring are way down considering what we saw last year and last week. And if the Raiders defense is actually competent at defending running backs then Cook could have another inefficient day. I’d start Jamaal Williams, David Montgomery and Isiah Pacheco over him, even in PPR. 

MATCHUP

TD

0

FPTS/G

17.7

DEBUT: Was electric in his first taste of NFL action, leading the Ravens in many basic stats thanks to his 9-78-0 stat line on 10 targets. His receiving average (8.7 yards) and yards per target (7.8) were third among the Ravens’ top WR trio because all but two of his targets were two yards downfield or closer (including five passes behind the line of scrimmage). 

FLOWERS: Played 45.8% of his snaps from the slot, a much higher-than-expected (and welcomed) amount. The Ravens seem committed to using Flowers, Bateman and even a little bit of Nelson Agholor in the slot this season. 

BENGALS: Pass defense was outstanding last week against the Browns, holding wide receivers to a 36.8% catch rate and a lowly 1.14 Yards After Catch per Reception (YAC/rec). Cleveland WRs combined to see seven targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (12 targets went 11 or more Air Yards), so the Ravens should offer a change of pace. Still, the Bengals missed one tackle on a receiver all game. 

LOU ANARUMO: Since taking over Cincy’s defense in 2019, Lamar Jackson has played the Bengals six times. He’s completed over 60% of his passes twice — both in 2019 — and thrown multiple touchdowns three times — once in 2019, twice in 2020. This is a new Ravens offense for sure, but the point is Cincinnati has progressively gotten better and better at stopping Jackson as a passer. 

RAVENS: Will play without two starting offensive linemen — good ones: Left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum. Their backups aren’t actually bad at all — Patrick Mekari and Sam Mustipher — but they’ll get tested. It could negatively impact Jackson’s throws. 

It’s pretty clear after one week who the Ravens like as their top receiver. Flowers’ explosiveness and 10 targets from Week 1 cannot be ignored in Fantasy, but neither should the matchup. I would temper expectations on Flowers and keep him in the flex range. I’d also consider Rashod Bateman a DFS flier. I’d bank on rebound games for Jahan Dotson, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, starting them over Flowers, but I’d chance it with Flowers over Puka Nacua, Courtland Sutton and George Pickens.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.

Analysis to come.